Hazards of neoliberalism: delayed electric power restoration after Hurricane Ike

This case study explores how neoliberal policies shape the impacts of a natural disaster. We investigate the reactions to major damages to the electric power system and the restoration of power in the wake of Hurricane Ike, which devastated the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area in September 2008. We argue that the neoliberal policy agenda insured a minimalist approach to the crisis and generated dissatisfaction among many residents. The short-term profitability imperative shifted reconstruction costs to consumers, and prevented efforts to upgrade the electric power infrastructure to prepare for future disasters. We illustrate the serious obstacles for disaster mitigation and recovery posed by neoliberal policies that privatize public goods and socialize private costs. Neoliberalism neither addresses the needs of a highly stratified public nor their long-term interests and safety.     

Inference on cointegrating ranks using lr and lm tests based on pseudo-likelihoods

This paper considers Lagrange Multiplier (LM) and Likelihood Ratio (LR) tests for determining the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive system. n order to deal with outliers and possible fat-tailedness of the error process, non-Gaussian likelihoods are used to carry out the estimation. The limiting distributions of the tests based on these non-Gaussian pseudo-)likelihoods are derived. These distributions depend on nuisance parameters. An operational procedure is proposed to perform inference. It appears that the tests based on non-Gaussian pseudo-likelihoods are much more powerful than their Gaussian counterparts if the errors are fat-tailed. Moreover, the operational LM-type test has a better overall performance than the LR-type test. Copyright O 1998 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.     

四川三州地区提升路网气候恢复力研究

四川省三州地区地处中国一二级阶梯过渡地带,地质构造复杂,新构造运动强烈,属断裂构造发育,极易因强降水等极端天气诱发山洪、泥石流、崩塌、滑坡等灾害,导致该区域路网灾害发生频率高、强度大和多灾并发。这在高山峡（深）谷区尤为严重。通过分析四川省三州地区的路网灾害风险管理体制机制,发现主要问题在于：灾害科学研究相对薄弱、灾害应急与防治技术较为缺乏、灾害危害度和路网基础设施的易损性较大、路网系统的抗灾能力和恢复力较弱。为了在四川三州地区构建安全可靠、应急保障能力强的现代路网体系,需要通过构建时空、纵向、横向三位一体的综合灾害风险治理体系和健全灾害科学、应急技术、风险管理三者有机结合的防灾减灾机制等措施,不断提升四川三州地区的路网气候恢复力。     

我国气象防灾减灾能力建设与实践

在全球气候变化背景下,我国气象灾害及其影响已产生新的特点。近年来,包括气象灾害监测、预报预警、预警信息发布、风险管理、减灾手段和科技支撑等方面在内的气象防灾减灾综合能力建设逐步加强,“政府主导、部门联动、社会参与”的气象防灾减灾机制日渐完善。未来,面对气象防灾减灾的新挑战,我国应更加注重防御极端天气气候事件,化解经济社会发展的气候风险,完善气象防灾减灾体系,增强全民防灾减灾的知识水平。     

Tests for random time effects and spatial error correlation in panel regression models

We consider a panel model with spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity across time. Various Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio test statistics are developed for testing time effects and spatial effects, jointly, marginally or conditionally. Limiting null distributions of the tests are derived. Size and power performances of the proposed tests are compared by a Monte-Carlo experiment.     

Smooth Goodness-of-Fit Specification Tests Under the Lagrange Multiplier Principle

This article generalizes Neyman's smooth test for the goodness-of-fit hypothesis using orthogonal polynomials of the density function under the null hypothesis, and derives a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) statistic based on the generalized form of the smooth test. Under the null hypothesis, using the joint limiting normality of the orthogonal functions imbedded into the smooth alternative density function and the restricted parameter estimators, the covariance matrix of the LM statistic can be estimated. The procedure of constructing monic orthogonal polynomials from a given moment function is developed. This procedure is applied to examples of testing for normal, Poisson, and gamma distributions.     

Multivariate Kendall's tau for change‐point detection in copulas

Statistical procedures for the detection of a change in the dependence structure of a series of multivariate observations are studied in this work. The test statistics that are proposed are $L_1$ , $L_2$ , and $L_{\infty }$ distances computed from vectors of differences of Kendall's tau; two multivariate extensions of Kendall's measure of association are used. Since the distributions of these statistics under the null hypothesis of no change depend on the unknown underlying copula of the vectors, a procedure based on the multiplier central limit theorem is used for the computation of p‐values; the method is shown to be valid both asymptotically and for moderate sample sizes. Alternative versions of the tests that take into account possible breakpoints in the marginal distributions are also investigated. Monte Carlo simulations show that the tests are powerful under many scenarios of change‐point. In addition, two estimators of the time of change are proposed and their efficiency is carefully studied. The methodologies are illustrated on simulated series from the Canadian Regional Climate Model. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 65–82; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

基于系统动力学的京津冀碳排放交易政策影响研究

随着经济的快速发展,环境问题日益严重,京津冀地区低碳协同发展成为关注的焦点。碳排放权交易机制作为一种市场驱动的碳减排政策,能有效地减缓气候变化,降低二氧化碳排放量。对此,本文基于系统动力学,构建京津冀碳排放交易政策仿真模型,探索不同的碳交易机制设计对京津冀地区经济和环境的影响。实证研究结果表明:(1)总体上,碳交易机制能有效地促进京津冀地区的碳减排进程,即使对经济会产生微小的负向冲击;(2)在碳交易机制设计方面,减少碳配额总量,减少免费配额发放,以及提高碳交易价格均会增大碳减排力度,并同时加剧对经济的抑制作用。     

双寡头电力市场垂直合作减排的随机微分对策模型

考虑单电网公司与双发电商所组成的渠道结构,构建了发电商投资减排、电网公司投资消纳的优势互补的异质型垂直合作减排的随机微分对策模型,先后考察并比较了分散决策和集成决策下的反馈均衡结果。在此基础上,讨论了利润共享契约下系统增量利润的分配问题。研究表明：对于分散决策,电网公司选择性承担发电商的减排费用;两种决策下的发电商减排和电网公司购电价格以及分散决策下的减排补贴与发电商之间的减排竞争强度相关;在一定条件和范围内,合作博弈有利于提高电网公司购电电价,同时为此所带来的风险增大。     

Identifying Social Interactions Through Conditional Variance Restrictions

This paper proposes a new method for identifying social interactions using conditional variance restrictions. The method provides a consistent estimate of the social multiplier when social interactions take the “linear‐in‐means” form (Manski (1993)). When social interactions are not of the linear‐in‐means form, the estimator, under certain conditions, continues to form the basis of a consistent test of the no social interactions null with correct large sample size. The methods are illustrated using data from the Tennessee class size reduction experiment Project STAR. The application suggests that differences in peer group quality were an important source of individual‐level variation in the academic achievement of Project STAR kindergarten students.